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In other words, undocumented migrants are no longer a small share of Latinos in the United States. Never before have so many people been outside the law and never before have the undocumented been so concentrated within such a small number of national origins. To say that US immigration policies have failed is an understatement. From to the population born in Latin America increased more than 11 times. Owing to mass immigration, the total Hispanic population grew by a factor of five, and the percentage of the population born in Latin America residing in the US more than tripled.
All these trends unfolded in spite of—and, as we have shown, paradoxically also because of—the progressive limitation of opportunities for legal entry, the massive build-up of enforcement resources at the border, the large rise in deportations, and the systematic restriction of the civil liberties and social rights of noncitizens.
If the goal of such actions was to limit immigration from Latin America and prevent the demographic transformation of the United States, they achieved the opposite. Might events have worked out differently? The crux of the problem is that Congress routinely makes consequential policy decisions with scant consideration of the underlying dynamics of the social processes involved. That was certainly the case here, for in orchestrating immigration reforms during the s and s Congress took little notice of the long history of recruitment in the hemisphere; the high degree of circularity that historically had prevailed; the strong connection of flows to the dynamics of labor supply and demand; the key role of networks in sustaining and expanding migration over time; the motivations of migrants and how they change in the course of a migratory career; the structural transformations that occur in sending and receiving areas as a result of mass migration; the likelihood of a migratory response to economic, political, and military intervention; the large size and well-established nature of flows into the United States on the eve of restriction; and most importantly the strong momentum that accrues to migratory flows once underway.
As we have demonstrated, intervening forcefully in complex social and economic systems without understanding their dynamics can lead to unintended consequences and unanticipated policy feedbacks. To be fair, immigration was not a salient issue in the s and s when many of the fateful decisions were taken, and fundamental features of migration processes—network effects, migratory momentum, migrant motivations—are much better understood now than they were four decades ago.
Nonetheless, it is possible to imagine a different scenario occurring, particularly if Congress had thought about immigration reform as potentially having wide-ranging effects on a well-established binational migratory system rather than simply as a domestic political issue.
Suppose, for example, that in choosing to reform the Bracero Program, Congress had enacted safeguards to improve the wages, working conditions, and treatment of workers instead of shutting down the program entirely. Finally, suppose that instead of funding the Contras and other paramilitary operations, generating a cycle of violence and economic disruption, the Reagan Administration had let events in Nicaragua take their course without interference.
Under those circumstances mass migration from Latin America might indeed have been avoided. With the continuation of a reformed temporary labor migration program, the flow from Mexico would have remained predominantly circular. With a generous country quota for permanent resident visas, Mexican workers who established legitimate ties and wished to settle in the United States would have had a legal pathway. Hispanic population growth would thus have been slow and illegal migration would likely not have risen to the high levels that have made it into a major political issue.
The Latino threat narrative would not have gained traction, fears of an alien flood or invasion would not have pushed Americans toward greater conservatism, and there would have been little support for restrictionist policies. At the same time, absent a US intervention in Central America, the collapse of Soviet support would likely have brought down the Sandinista government in Nicaragua and ended insurgencies elsewhere without displacing millions of Central Americans northward.
Central Americans would not have contributed so greatly to Hispanic population growth. A softer line on restriction, less punitive enforcement, and greater military restraint could have yielded fewer permanent immigrants, less undocumented migration, and slower population growth. The era of mass Mexican migration appears to be over, at least for the moment. According to the best estimates, the undocumented population peaked at around 12 million in , fell to 11 million in , and has held steady since then Wasem The annual number of legal entries has likewise fallen, dropping from , in to , in The number of entries by temporary workers, in contrast, has increased to record levels, reaching , in , the largest number in history US Department of Homeland Security With the number of temporary worker entries exceeding those recorded during the Bracero Program, illegal migration at zero, and demand for permanent resident visas apparently falling, the key remaining item on the immigration reform agenda is how to deal with the legacy of past failed policies—the large population of undocumented residents.
Despite record deportations and rising anti-immigrant sentiment, the rate of return migration among this population is also near zero. Of the 11 million persons currently present without authorization, some 3 million entered as children. Absent a criminal record, there is a compelling case that they should be granted amnesty as proposed in pending legislation, such as the Dream Act. After all, it was not their decision to be undocumented. For those who entered the United States illegally as adults, arguably the only sensible and humane solution is an earned legalization program.
For example, migrants could accumulate points for learning English, taking civics courses, paying taxes, and having US citizen children. When a specified threshold number of points is reached, they would pay a fine and adjust their status to legal permanent resident. A permanent undocumented population of 11 million can only bring a host of social and economic problems, ones that will worsen the longer an appropriate policy response is deferred.
The problem is that they, like most Americans, fall into the trap of viewing with intractable problems surrounding the many back doors to America, and this fact This is strong evidence for policymakers to create a revolving door system that to serve us at best or as parasites who take away American jobs, but we need a. Cruel and immoral: America must close the doors of its immigration prisons Justice department lawyers, he added, will file criminal charges against parents who enter the United The Obama administration never looked back. For the immigration law system to function, the United States doesn't have.
National Center for Biotechnology Information , U. Author manuscript; available in PMC Jul Douglas S Massey and Karen A. See other articles in PMC that cite the published article. Abstract The year is often cited as a turning point in the history of US immigration, but what happened in the ensuing years is not well understood. The unintended legacy of immigration reform Paradoxical as it may seem, US immigration policy often has very little to do with trends and patterns of immigration.
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Rise of the Latino threat narrative In the absence of access to any avenue of legal entry, the post increase in illegal migration was attributable almost entirely to the termination of the Bracero Program. Proquest Historical Newspaper Files. Effects on public opinion The shift in the legal auspices of Mexican migration thus transformed what had been a largely invisible circulation of innocuous workers into a yearly and highly visible violation of American sovereignty by hostile aliens who were increasingly framed as invaders and criminals.
Policy feedbacks Not surprisingly, the rise of the Latino threat narrative and the concomitant increase in conservatism were associated over time with the passage of increasingly restrictionist immigration legislation and the implementation of ever more stringent enforcement policies.
Feedback loop between apprehensions and border enforcement, — Enter the war on terrorism The feedback loop connecting apprehensions, public attitudes, legislation, and enforcement was fully established by the s when a series of exogenous terrorist events drove the enforcement cycle to new heights.
Feedback loop between deportations and internal enforcement, — Explaining the Latino immigration boom It is evident that the massive increase in border enforcement Figure 5 and the exponential increase in deportations Figure 6 were not successful in preventing the entry of millions of unauthorized Mexicans after Redburn, Reuter, and Majmundar The new American demography We have argued that the post surge in Mexican, Central American, and to a lesser extent South American immigration was not a direct result of immigration reforms that occurred in the mids, but instead arose indirectly through an accumulation of unintended consequences that unfolded afterward.
A counterfactual scenario To say that US immigration policies have failed is an understatement. American Community Survey Briefs. The foreign born from Latin America and the Caribbean: Mexican Repatriation in the s. University of New Mexico Press; Thomas Dunne Books; Time to call a halt! Population Images and the Politics of the Nation. University of California Press; Constructing Immigrants, Citizens, and the Nation. Stanford University Press; War on the Middle Class: Envy Up, Scorn Down: How Status Divides Us.
Russell Sage Foundation; Unwanted Mexican Americans in the Great Depression: University of Arizona Press; Explaining where and when immigrants provoke local opposition. American Political Science Review. Central America is no longer the central issue for Americans. Fear and loathing in Congress and the courts: Immigration and judicial review. International migration during the Nicaraguan Contra war. Journal of Latin American Studies. The new immigration and ethnicity in the United States.
Population and Development Review. International migration at the dawn of the twenty-first century: The role of the state. The past and future of Mexico—U. Oxford University Press; Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Age of Economic Integration. Las consecuencias de la guerra antiinmigrante. Origins of the new Latino underclass. Race and Social Problems. New estimates of undocumented Mexican migration and the probability of apprehension.
A Theoretical and Comparative Analysis. Illegal, Alien, or Immigrant: The Politics of Immigration Reform. New York University Press; Illegal Aliens and the Making of Modern America. Princeton University Press; Budgeting for Immigration Enforcement: A Path to Better Performance. National Academies Press; Twilight on the Line: University of Texas Press; Yale University Press; The Politics and Morals of Political Membership.
Cambridge University Press; The Politics of Immigration Control in America. Immigration policy prior to the s: Labor markets, policy interactions, and globalization backlash. US Department of Homeland Security. Warren Robert, Passel Jeffrey S. A count of the uncountable: Estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the Census. Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States: Congressional Research Service; A Nation by Design: Immigration Policy in the Fashioning of America. Support Center Support Center. Please review our privacy policy.
Illegal migration rose steadily after to peak in the late s. The sole exception was Nicaragua, whose emigrants were fleeing a leftist regime and were thus allowed to overstay tourist visas and ultimately adjust their status to become legal permanent residents Lundquist and Massey Having satisfied the language and civics requirements, all they would have to do is pay an application fee and wait. Might events have worked out differently? Never before have so many people been outside the law and never before have the undocumented been so concentrated within such a small number of national origins. Mothers were detained with children, sometimes no more than a few months old, while fathers were separated from their loved ones. Immigration Policy in the Fashioning of America.
Hart—Cellar Act Imposed first-ever annual cap of , visas for immigrants from Western Hemisphere. Amendments to Immigration and Nationality Act Combined separate hemispheric caps into single worldwide ceiling of , His second book, Migrating to Prison: Topics US immigration Opinion. Trump administration US domestic policy comment. Order by newest oldest recommendations. Show 25 25 50 All.
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